Evaluating the usefulness of functional distance measures when calibrating journey-to-crime distance decay functions
Abstract
This research evaluates the usefulness of applying functional distance measures to criminal
geographic profiles using mathematically calibrated distance decay models. Both the travelpath
(i.e., shortest distance) and temporally optimized (i.e., quickest travel time) functional
distance measures were calculated based on the impedance attributes stored within a linearly
referenced transportation data layer of several parishes in Louisiana. Two different journey-tocrime
distance decay functions (i.e., negative exponential, and truncated negative exponential)
were mathematically calibrated for ‘‘best fit’’, based on the distribution of distances between
homicide crime locations and offenders residences. Using the calibrated distance decay functions,
geographic profiles were created for a localized serial killer from Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
A probability score was calculated for every point within the study area to indicate the
likelihood that it contained the serial offenders residence. A comparison between the predicted
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